Data fuels talk of 2nd biggest economy
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China remains a developing country with a large number of poor people and low per capita GDP, the statistics chief said yesterday while releasing economic growth figures for last year which suggest the nation is poised to overtake Japan as the world's second-largest economy.
The gross domestic product rose by 8.7 percent year-on-year to reach 33.54 trillion yuan ($4.91 trillion) in 2009, with fourth quarter growth accelerating to 10.7 percent from 9.1 percent in the third quarter, which analysts said indicates an entrenched recovery.
The growth has fanned intense discussion on whether the national economy had surpassed Japan's by the end of 2009 and also fueled fears of rising inflation this year.
Japan's GDP in 2008 was $4.84 trillion, but it is expected to have shrunk by at least 3 percent in 2009 due to the global financial crisis, meaning it would be less than China's GDP, some economists said. Tokyo is scheduled to release 2009 growth figures next month
But Bank of America-Merrill Lynch estimates that China did not surpass Japan last year in terms of GDP, because while Japan's economy shrank, calculations are affected by currency fluctuations, according to Bloomberg.
The yen appreciated by about 10 percent against the dollar in 2009, which automatically enlarges Japan's dollar-denominated GDP.
"The possibility of China having surpassed Japan in terms of dollar-denominated GDP in 2009 is slim," said Zuo Xiaolei, chief economist of Galaxy Securities in Beijing.
