Key indicators show economy on even keel
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E-mail China Daily, March 12, 2019
The change, as the PBOC explained, could indicate that financial institutions are gradually adopting the new rules on asset management products, the most influential policy to crack down on shadow banking, which was issued in April 2018.
Hu Xiaolian, a member of the Standing Committee of the 13th Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference National Committee and chairwoman of the Export-Import Bank of China, said that financial policy needs to stay stable especially in the face of economic downside risks.
Too much easing of macroeconomic policy may lead to financial risks, said Hu, who also warned against a sharp reverse toward a tightening stance. "We should set a warning line to prevent the re-expansion of leverage."
Liu Wei, president of Renmin University of China, also a CPPCC National Committee member, said that the key issue is not about the aggregate amount of money or liquidity, but the structure and efficiency of the use of funds. "To curb the slowdown of demand growth is the critical task for short-term macro administration."
A group of the central bank's senior officials reassured the media on Sunday that the monetary policy stance will remain "prudent", although leaving room for additional liquidity injection and the real lending rates for small and private companies will be lower.
PBOC Governor Yi Gang attributed the first two months' credit data distortions to the Lunar New Year holiday. At Sunday's news conference, he suggested combining the data in January and February, or even considering the situation in March, for sensible analysis.
"The authorities are unlikely to engineer another long, large-scale credit boom, as its room for policy easing is becoming increasingly constrained," said Lu Ting, chief economist in China with Tokyo-based brokerage Nomura Securities.
As China will continue the deleveraging process targeting some key areas, it is hard to see a large rebound of money and credit data in the following months, which is also depressed by the economic growth headwinds, said Wu Ge, chief economist of Changjiang Securities.
