Fine-tuned policies spark realty recovery
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E-mail China Daily, October 20, 2023
China's housing market led by first-tier cities is showing signs of regaining stability on the back of recent supportive measures, indicating the current downturn in home prices might have been checked for now, paving the way for a mild recovery, industry experts said on Thursday after reviewing the latest data.
In September, China's top four cities — Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen and Guangzhou in Guangdong province — extended year-on-year recovery in prices of new homes, which rose by 0.7 percent but were flat month-on-month.
In month-on-month terms, pre-owned home prices there rose by 0.2 percent, the first positive growth after four months of continuous declines.
In smaller Chinese cities, however, prices of new homes and pre-owned homes showed different trends, according to data published by the National Bureau of Statistics on Thursday.
Out of the 70 Chinese cities tracked by the NBS, 45 reported year-on-year declines in new home prices in September. In August, 44 cities had reported such declines, said Shen Yun, senior statistician with the NBS' urban division.
The decline in the average home price index has slowed in September, suggesting the series of policies on home purchases introduced since August have started to produce positive effects, said Yan Yuejin, director of the Shanghai-based E-house China Research and Development Institution.
"The measures have had a positive effect on both the market performance and market expectations, thus promising stabilization of the home price index in the coming months," Yan said.
New home prices in 31 second-tier cities slipped 0.3 percent month-on-month on average in September, but grew by 0.2 percent year-on-year.
New home prices in 35 third-tier cities slid 0.3 percent month-on-month, but dropped 1.4 percent year-on-year.
"September data showed the decline in the home price index has been curbed with first-tier cities taking the lead in recovery," said Yan.
It appears the home price index has gone past the most pessimistic moment, and efforts should be made now to consolidate the existing positive effect of supportive policies in the fourth quarter, so as to push the index toward stability and recovery, Yan said.
In September, housing policies were adjusted or eased as many as 144 times, a record for this year so far, according to data from the Zhuge Real Estate Data Research Center.
"With the policy measures starting to produce positive effects, the housing market is seeing improvements," said Chen Xiao, a senior analyst with the Zhuge Real Estate Data Research Center, adding the recovery trend is more evident in the pre-owned housing market.
