By An Huihou
U.S. President Barack Obama is going to visit Egypt and Saudi Arabia on June 3. With many challenges ahead, Obama will surely attract worldwide attention during his Middle East tour.
Obama began fine-tuning US Middle East policy as soon as he took office. Now four months has elapsed and he has made little progress, meeting many setbacks in pushing forward on his Mideast policy.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected the two-state solution and refused to stop expanding Jewish settlements in Israeli-occupied territories. This brought the Palestinian-Israeli peace talks to a dead end. Consequently, the US attempt to improve its image in Middle East through alleviating the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has failed.
The sharp increase of violence in Iraq hints at a worsening security situation there. The former US commander in Iraq once said that a US troop pullout this June depends on the development of the Iraqi situation and the Iraqi government. Recently Army Chief of Staff George Casey predicted that the U.S. could have fighting forces in Iraq and Afghanistan for a decade. This denotes a US belief that the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan will not end any time soon.
US-Iran talks have not started yet. The Obama administration has signaled its willingness to talk with Iran directly if it "unclenched its fist." Iran is also willing to hold talks with the U.S. on the condition that the U.S. should first drop its hostility toward Iran. But a thaw in the longstanding rivalry between the two countries doesn't seem imminent. The Iranian presidential election will be held this month. It is possible that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will be reelected, but even the election of a reformist will not cause Iran to change its basic state policies. Even if the U.S. and Iran start talks after the election, it will remain a tough task to resolve the disputes between the two countries.
Finally, the U.S. has shifted its anti-terrorism efforts from Iraq to Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Pakistani government recently dispatched forces to fight Taliban militants within its territory and has had great success. At the same time, however, the conflict has caused more terrorist violence and led to the displacement of hundreds of thousands of citizens. The Pakistani government is not likely to wipe out Taliban militants entirely, and 70 percent of Afghanistan is still controlled by Taliban militant groups.
Saudi Arabia and Egypt are two very important Arabian nations in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia, neighboring Iraq and separated from Iran by the Persian Gulf, has some influence over both Pakistan and Afghanistan. Egypt has always been the leader of the Arab world and plays an important role in Pakistani-Israeli peace talks. These two countries have remained two vital allies to the U.S. in the Middle East. Egypt was somewhat ignored by the Bush administration. In order to promote the Mideast peace process, Obama will have to put more emphasis on the role of Egypt in Mideast. The fact that Obama picked Egypt to make his long-anticipated speech to the Islamic world shows his recognition of the important role played by Egypt in the Arab world.
Obama's earlier visit to Turkey and his upcoming visits to Saudi Arabia and Egypt revealed the importance of the Middle East on Obama's agenda. Obama currently has three tasks during his visit to Saudi Arabia and Egypt: to push for the resumption of the Palestinian-Israeli peace negotiation, to gradually stabilize the situation in Iraq and Afghanistan, and to mobilize more forces to deal with Iran.
(China.org.cn translated by Zhang Ming'ai, June 4, 2009)
