Russia's short affair with the West
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Russia recently changed its stance on Iran's nuclear policies. As an ally of Iran with many strategic and economic interests in the country, Russia's pro-Western stance is unlikely to last.
Historically, Russia has opposed sanctions against Iran but it slowly began to shift its position following Iran's rejection of a U.N.-brokered uranium enrichment plan late last year. Last month, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev made his toughest comments yet on Iran's nuclear program, saying Iran was moving closer to having the potential to build nuclear weapons. In June, Russia angered Iran by supporting the draft for a new set of U.N. sanctions over the Iranian nuclear program.
Russia has always had a contradictory attitude toward Iran's nuclear program. As one of Iran's important partners, Russia has not only supported Iran's peaceful use of nuclear energy, but also cooperated closely with Iran to develop nuclear energy to make a big profit. But Moscow never expected Iran to master nuclear technology or create nuclear weapons, which Russian leaders now fear could happen.
Iran not only represents an important regional ally for Russia but also a useful bargaining tool in diplomatic relations with the West, especially the U.S. For now, Russia has decided its relations with the U.S. are more important than its relations with Iran. So, its support for sanctions is a sign that Russia is trying to strengthen cooperation with the West.
But will Russia continue to take a tough stance toward Iran? As Russia spans both Asia and Europe, it attaches equal stress to Asia and Europe in its diplomatic strategy. Therefore, it will not give up Iran completely. Russia has done business in Iran for many years. It has many interests in arms, trade and nuclear development markets in Iran.
More importantly, as Russia is increasing its power, it has sped up pace to return to the Middle East. Iran, the only Middle Eastern country connecting the two big oil deposits of the Caspian Sea and Persian Gulf, is an important stronghold and geopolitical partner for Russia to increase its clout in the Middle East and Persian Gulf.
Russia's pandering to Western countries has brought more negative rather than positive results. Russia is going to lose Iran's trust if it leans too much toward the U.S. Iran ordered all Russian pilots to leave within two months in April. In May, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad criticized Russia over its support for the UN sanctions. And in July, after Medvedev's critical remarks, Ahmadinejad retaliated by saying that Russia had become the spokesman of the West and listed it as an enemy of Iran.
Russia's cooperation with the U.S. on Iran's nuclear program has not improved relations, either. The U.S. continues to deploy its missile defense system in Poland. And just after Medvedev held a hearty meeting with Obama, the U.S. announced its arrest of 11 Russian spies.
Russia has gained little from its pro-Western stance. Meanwhile, Russians have voiced more doubts and criticism over Medvedev. Against such backdrop, Russia cannot afford to lose Iran. Therefore, in the near future Russia is very likely to soften its tone towards Iran.
(The post was first published in Chinese and translated by Yang Xi and Zhang Ming'ai)
