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Predicting the post-Chavez era

By Jiang Shixue: 0 Comment(s)Print E-mail China.org.cn, March 11, 2013

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Residents wait to visit the coffin with the remains of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, at Venezuela's Military Academy, in Fort Tiuna, in Caracas, capital of Venezuela, on March 8, 2013.[Xinhua]

For many supporters of Hugo Chavez’s domestic and foreign policies, his death comes as a great loss. However, the news was well-received by the United States and those in opposing political camps. In April 2002, Chavez was removed from power for 48 hours in a failed coup attempt backed by the United States, and there are rumors that the CIA had tried to assassinate him.

In his years as President of Venezuela, Chavez’s achievements can be summarized in the following points:

First, Chavez encouraged the rise of leftism in Latin America. It was his election victory in 1998 that ushered in an era of the Latin American left, although sometimes it is not easy to define the meaning of left. Since then, the left has been an important force in Central and South American regional politics.

Second, Chavez’s notion of “socialism of the 21st century” opened new avenues for experimentation in the area of economic and social development in Venezuela, coming at a time when support for socialistic governments was at a low.

Third, Chavez greatly improved the living conditions and livelihoods for many of Venezuela’s poor. Venezuela is an oil-rich nation with a very wide income gap and by focusing on improving people’s livelihoods Chavez was able to secure election victories.

Fourth, Chavez was successful in uniting anti-U.S. governments in Latin America to form what is referred to as the “Latin American anti-U.S. coalition” along with Cuba, Bolivia, Ecuador and Nicaragua, etc. This coalition of anti-U.S. governments was particularly strong during the George W. Bush years of American foreign policy.

Fifth, Chavez was able to support other countries’ economic and social development through the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America or Alianza Bolivariana para los Pueblos de Nuestra América (ALBA), a trading bloc that encourages cooperation among the less developed countries in Latin America.

The post-Chavez era

According to the Venezuelan constitution, there will be an election one month after the death of the President. Within this short period of time, both Venezuelan Vice President Nicolas Maduro and the opposition will shift into overdrive to win over the support from a majority of the population. Maduro's loyalty to Chavez means that if he wins the upcoming election, it will be difficult to differentiate his policies from the past fourteen years. In other words, continuity can be expected in the future.

However, if the opposition succeeds in winning a majority of the vote, everything in Venezuela will most probably be turned upside down. In this case, the post-Chavez era will be radically different from the previous decade of political stability. Domestically, for instance, the “socialism of the 21st century” experiment will likely be undone. Nationalization, a major component of this political machine, will be replaced by privatization to attract foreign capital. At the same time, social progress might be slowed down and residents with lower incomes will receive less assistance from the national government.

Externally, Venezuela’s relations with the outside world would change. The U.S. would not be seen as “a devil”, a label Chavez used to attack former U.S. President Bush at the UN General Assembly on September 15, 2005. Rather, it would be welcomed as an important source of capital flowing into the South American nation’s oil industry and other sectors. Needless to say, Venezuela’s relations with Cuba, Iran, Bolivia, Ecuador and Nicaragua will be adjusted significantly.

The Western media was quick to predict that the death of Chavez will leave a large void in the leftist leadership of Latin America. It is true that Chavez was regarded as a vanguard of the left-wing in Latin America. As a result, his death will certainly deal a heavy blow to the political movement’s influence in the region. But it will not be the end of regional socialism.

In the post-Chavez era under the opposition’s rule, the immediate change will take place in the Cuba-Venezuela relationship. When Chavez was in power, Venezuela had very good ties with Cuba. As a matter of fact, the bilateral relationship is so close that Western media coined the word “Cubazuela”. Therefore, Chavez’s death has aroused wide speculation about its impact on the Caribbean nation.

After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, economic aid from the former socialist nation to Cuba ran dry, and the Cuban economy began to nosedive. Reports indicate that Cuba imports 100,000 barrels of Venezuelan oil at cut-rate prices, and in return Cuba sends doctors and medical support staff to Venezuela.

But Cuba’s modern economy is much more complex than it was during the early 1990s. Even if the post-Chavez government of Venezuela decides to reduce or cut aid to Cuba, it still can sustain its economy though it needs to secure an alternative source of energy.

China’s relationship with Venezuela grew in strength and respect after Chavez came to power. In 2001, the two countries established a strategic partnership for common development. Apart from rapidly increasing trade, China has also invested heavily in this South American nation, and the unique loan-for-oil deals have created mutual benefits for both sides. Exchanges and cooperation in other fields have also moved forward steadily.

On the one hand, economic cooperation between China and Venezuela is legally based on government contracts and agreements; on the other, the economic relationship between the two countries is win-win. Consequently, the nature of this kind of partnership will not significantly change even if the opposition wins the election in the post-Chavez era. This continuity of Venezuela’s foreign policy towards China will certainly be beneficial for both sides.

The author is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:

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