Why real democracy will remain a distant dream in Myanmar
- By Niranjan Sahoo
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E-mail China.org.cn, November 20, 2015
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Aung San Suu Kyi met with Xi Jinping in June. [Photo: CNS] |
Aung San Suu Kyi led National League for Democracy (NLD) clinched an unbelievable victory in the recently held elections in Myanmar. Under the charismatic leadership of Suu Kyi, the NLD has pocketed more than two-third of seats inflicting a heavy blow to the junta supported Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP).
Fighting against heavy odds including discriminatory restrictions (i.e., Article 59 debarring Suu Kyi from becoming the head of government) imposed by the military government and electoral processes getting murkier with divisive and shrill campaigns by the Buddhist extremist groups and ethnic based parties, Suu Kyi's party pulled an impossible victory. Nearly all tall leaders of the ruling party including the former speaker of the House U Shwe Mann and the acting USDP chair U Htay Oo lost their deposits, which made the junta to acknowledge defeat even within a few hours of vote counts. It appears the election outcome was a foregone thing.
Yet, election victory is the easiest part. The big question is - will the military government honour the verdict and desist from the repeat of 1990? It may be recalled that Suu Kyi's NLD had swept the military backed elections in 1990. However, in a sudden change of tactic, the generals declared the result void and went for a massive crackdown on political parties and their supporters. Suu Kyi was put under house arrest for next 20 years and the rest is history.
Will history repeat?
However, the story looks quite different this time around. If the press notes and the body languages of top generals are to be believed, they would avoid a 1990 repeat. For instance, the Army Chief General Min Aung Hlaing hailed the election results while hinting at smooth transfer of power to the winning party. Similarly, President Thein Sein unambiguously stated that "Duty will be transferred to the next government systematically, according to the schedule. We will ensure it will be very smooth and stable, without worry."
Of course, such gestures should not be taken as sudden change of heart and generals have become "democracy friendly." There are several reasons for such behaviour. One, 2015 is no 1990. The military masters know the world since 1990 has changed dramatically and Myanmar cannot afford another round of international sanctions. Second, the junta has prepared well for the transition and the proof lies in the re-writing of the constitution in 2008 wherein military has got an upper hand in any government formation and its day to day running. Apart from reserving key portfolios such as defence, internal security and police for the military, it has earmarked 25 percent of parliamentary seats for the men in uniform, effectively blocking any constitutional change that would put the junta in the adverse situation. In short, the junta has ensured that it would remain in the driver's seat in the event of government formation.
