David Cameron (L) speaks with British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in 10 Downing Street in London, Britain, on Nov. 13, 2023. [Photo/Xinhua]

It's difficult to write an up-to-date report on politics in Britain. As fast as one is written, something newsworthy happens that needs to be added.

I first began this column with a review of the Conservative Party's annual conference during the first week of October. The speeches by government ministers appeared to confirm that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and his team had changed their strategic approach in the run-up to next year's General Election. 

Back in February 2023, he had proclaimed the government's five key priorities for the year, namely: to halve the rate of inflation, boost economic growth, create more and better-paid jobs, reduce the size of Britain's National Debt, cut the waiting lists for National Health Service (NHS) treatment, and stop the illicit boats that bring undocumented immigrants across the English Channel.

These were to be the main grounds on which the Conservatives ("Tories") would go to the electorate and seek re-election sometime in 2024 or in January 2025 at the latest.

By the time Tory conference delegates arrived in Manchester at the beginning of October, it was clear that their government would struggle to meet these targets. This would explain why Sunak and his ministers spent so much platform time attacking the Labour Party and its leadership rather than defending their own record.

In particular, opposition leader Keir Starmer and his "shadow cabinet" were relentlessly traduced as unpatriotic extremists, unwilling to maintain Britain's military defenses, opposed to any controls on immigration, and uninterested in the fight against violent crime. 

Naturally, the Labour Party leadership rejected these allegations. When making speeches, Starmer and his shadow cabinet ministers pose next to a large British Union Jack flag whenever possible. As "His Majesty's Loyal Opposition" – the party's official status in the House of Commons – Labour has fully supported rearmament.

Conservative government ministers also opened up another front in their anti-Labour offensive. They accused Labour, and notably the mayor of Greater London, of imposing unfair low-speed and low-emission regulations on motorists. The Labour leader's response was to question the mayor's approach rather than defend it. 

Labour was also charged with prioritizing "green" measures above people's housing and energy needs, opposing government plans to relax anti-pollution rules relating to property development sites and expand the drilling for oil and gas in the North Sea. 

All these were made as the Tories' opinion poll ratings, then around 27%, continued to lag way behind Labour's 47%. Such a lead would be enough to take Starmer into 10 Downing Street with a majority of up to 50-60 seats. 

Millions of people who supported Boris Johnson and his "Get Brexit Done" message in the December 2019 General Election appear not to have forgiven the Tories for the political, economic, financial, and COVID-related chaos that has gripped Britain since mid-2020.

Three Westminster parliamentary by-elections in October then provided dramatic evidence that, at present, few Conservative seats in the House of Commons are safe. Labour captured two of them in England, overturning large Tory majorities, and one from the Scottish National Party (SNP).

Starmer duly celebrated. Yet the voting statistics for the past five Westminster by-elections in England since July – all in seats won by the Tories in 2019 – should caution against over-confidence. "Don't count your chickens before they hatch," as the old saying goes.

In these five English constituencies, the aggregate Labour vote increased by just over 1,000 to around 67,000. Lower turnouts at by-elections were a major factor, but, even so, the figures don't reveal any great rush to the polls to secure a Labour victory. As it was, Labour took a total of three seats from the Tories, while another went to the Liberal Democrats, whose overall total fell as several thousand previous supporters voted tactically for Labour.

The Tories held only one of their five seats in London, where local residents and far-right bandwagon jumpers campaigned against the new traffic regulations, and Labour's leadership prevented the selection of a popular, local left-wing candidate.

The most decisive factor in four of the five contests was the collapse of the Conservative vote, with almost 100,000 of the party's supporters in 2019 refusing to turn out this time. However, opinion surveys indicate that many of them are still likely to return to the fold come the General Election. 

While the chief concerns of undecided ex-Tory voters include the economy and the NHS, which could steer their votes more towards Labour, they also want tighter immigration controls, which favors the Tories or a switch to the "hard right" Reform UK party (currently at 8% in the polls) rather than to Labour. 

Scotland remains a special case, with the SNP retaining its predominance despite damaging reports in the media about party finances, high-level resignations, defections to the breakaway Alba Party, and the misconduct of some elected representatives. Labour is regaining some lost ground there, but not yet enough to take many seats from the SNP.

Hard on the heels of the October by-elections came the King's Speech on Nov. 7. Sunak's government set out its legislative proposals for the Westminster parliament. It was a thin package from a regime that is running out of new ideas.

The main measures are intended to boost oil and gas production in the North Sea, promote self-driving vehicles, radically restrict tobacco sales, increase rights for housing tenants and leaseholders, and impose tougher prison sentences for murder and sexual violence. Public bodies, including elected local councils, will be banned from boycotting any links with Israel, and there will be further restrictions on public demonstrations.

This appeared to confirm the contours of the Tory government's General Election campaign.

Then the controversy erupted over Home Secretary Suella Braverman's inflammatory remarks about, firstly, the "invasion" of Britain's shores by boatloads of desperate asylum seekers. Next, she accused homeless people of making a "lifestyle choice" to sleep rough on the streets. Even some of her Conservative colleagues were shocked when Braverman then criticized police chiefs, claiming they "played favorites" for "pro-Palestinian mobs" in marches across Britain.

Braverman was duly sacked on Nov. 13, and her post was handed to Foreign Secretary James Cleverly. More surprisingly, his place was taken by ex-MP David Cameron, the ex-prime minister blamed by most of big business and the liberal intelligentsia for losing the 2016 EU referendum. He had to be appointed to the House of Lords that day in order to join the Cabinet. 

The big question now is: Will the return of David Cameron to front-line government signal a change of political strategy for Sunak's Conservative government and party? Domestic policies are unlikely to change; Cameron presided over the harsh Tory-Liberal Democrat austerity regime of 2010-15. Despite this, however, he is regarded as more socially liberal and less right-wing than most Cabinet ministers, and his pro-EU views might also appeal to ex-Tory and even Liberal Democrat voters previously repelled by the Tory Party's shift to the right.

Whether Cameron and new Health Secretary Victoria Atkins – also a supporter of the UK remaining in the EU in 2016 – can shift the balance in the right-wing Cabinet towards the center and a cleaner General Election campaign remains to be seen.

Robert Griffiths is a former Senior Lecturer in Political Economy and History at the University of Wales and currently the General Secretary of the Communist Party of Britain.

Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors only, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.

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